How does global warming affect agricultural productivity?

Evidence from wheat-growing districts in India

Speaker: Ridhima Gupta, Indian Statistical Institute
Date: 27 August, 3.30-5 p.m.
Venue: Indian Statistical Institute Auditorium, 7, Sansanwal Marg, New Delhi
Chair: Dr Jyotsna Puri, Deputy Executive Director and Head of Evaluation, 3ie
Co-Chair: Prof. E Somanathan, programme director, Centre for Research on the Economics of Climate, Food, Energy and Environment, Indian Statistical Institute
Discussant: Prof. J V Meenakshi, Delhi School of Economics

A forthcoming study co-authored by Ridhima Gupta uses regression analysis on data from all major wheat-growing districts in India between 1981 and 2009 to examine the impact of temperature, solar radiation and rainfall on wheat yields. Estimates from the study indicate that a one degree centigrade increase in average daily maximum and minimum temperature tends to lower yields by two-three per cent. The maximum and minimum temperature during the wheat-growing season increased by 0.7 and 1.0 degree centigrade. Wheat yields in India would have been 4.5 per cent higher in 2009 if this temperature increase had not occurred. This study estimates that between 2010 and 2040 climate change will lead to further losses in wheat yields -- ranging from 12.3 per cent up to 27.4 per cent by the end of the century.

This seminar is being organised in association with the Centre for Research on the Economics of Climate, Food, Energy and Environment, Indian Statistical Institute

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