Does agricultural commercialisation improve welfare?

A replication study of Finding Missing Markets

Speaker: Benjamin DK Wood, evaluation specialist for replication, 3ie
Date: 24 April, 3-5 p.m.
Venue: Seminar Hall 3, Kamla Devi Block, India International Centre
Discussants: Prof. Bharat Ramaswami, Indian Statistical Institute
                      Dr Jyotsna Puri, deputy executive director, 3ie

3ie began the Replication Programme in response to numerous calls for increased research transparency. This seminar will explain the framework of this replication programme through the presentation of the replication study of Ashraf et al.'s influential paper Finding missing markets (and a disturbing epilogue): evidence from an export crop adoption and marketing intervention in Kenya.

The original evaluation, of an agricultural export crop promotion intervention conducted in Kenya, is one of the few impact evaluations exploring how agricultural commercialiasation affects household outcomes. This replication study attempts to independently reconstruct the evaluation using the existing raw data and finds the original results generally robust to replication, albeit with much lower coefficients on some of the main outcomes of interest.

The study also explore the evaluation’s theory of change, focusing on the result that first time export crop adopters benefit more from agricultural commercialisation than previous export crops producing agricultural households. It also examines questions around adequate power requirements and potential recall and courtesy bias within the analysis. Reproducing these original results is relevant both to encourage policymakers to use this evidence and to highlight knowledge gaps for future research.

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